Regional Impacts
For Labrador… some embedded thunderstorms could lead to locally heavier rainfall this evening.
For New Brunswick… potentially severe thunderstorms could affect northern New Brunswick late this afternoon. Small hail with strong wind gusts and potentially heavy downpours can be expected.
Convective Discussion
We are looking at very favourable dynamics for the development of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. Aloft the 250 mb jet will be in a good position for enhanced vertical motion later today with the exit region over northern New Brunswick. The windshear through to mid-levels is favourable for the development of supercells or possibly bow echoes, but it is still possible that a QLCS( Quasi Linear Convective System) could form west and move over New Brunswick later today. One remaining concern if the amount of available low level moisture and CAPE, but with the approaching upper trough the atmosphere will destabilize at some point today. Needless to say a large variety of possible outcomes, but in all likelihood severe winds will be the main concern should thunderstorms develop. Watches may be issued a little later today once we have some stronger indication of the clouds dissipating and more insolation occurring upstream of our area of concern.
ML
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
