Regional Impacts:
Today
Labrador: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms giving lightning, locally heavy downpours and gusty winds
Northwestern NB: Isolated thunderstorms
Tonight
Labrador: Isolated thunderstorms
Northwestern NB: Isolated thunderstorms
Monday
Labrador: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms giving lightning, locally heavy downpours and gusty winds
Northwest NB: Isolated thunderstorms giving local heavy downpours
Convective Discussion:
An upper trough of low pressure is slowly track eastward from Hudson Bay toward central Quebec today while a ridge of high pressure stalls over southeastern Newfoundland into Monday. Ahead of the trough, an increasingly unstable air mass will aid in the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms over western and central Labrador and into northwestern New Brunswick. Precipitable water is increasing to near 30 mm and CAPE values around 500 J/kg, however, shear will remain weak with little upper dynamics. This environment may sustain some pulse type storms with locally heavy downpours and brief strong wind gusts possible. Some TCUs in brief showers are expected along the eastern coast of New Brunswick and northern Nova Scotia today.
On Monday, the upper trough will track through eastern Newfoundland. With increasing vorticity, moisture and shear of 30KT, there is the possibility for more organized convection into squall lines but there will be some warming at 500 mb which may inhibit convection.
Convection Is expected along a near stationary boundary extending from southern Quebec into northwestern New Brunswick and the Gaspe Peninsula. Lighting, locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds are the main risks.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:
Thunderstorm outlook for Monday:
