Thunderstorm Forecast for TUESDAY:
Regional Impacts
Isolated non-severe embedded thunderstorms with 1010mb low tracking through Maritimes today. Synoptic rain and fog is the main story, but a few lightning strikes are possible ahead of the fronts.
Convective Discussion
There is a lot of speed shear aloft, but not much to work with in the low levels. There is, however, a plethora of low-level moisture to work with. This in turn, means Pwats of 30-40mm on the AM soundings. Skinny MLCAPE of 500-700J/kg can only produce a strike or two. Any heavy pockets of rain could be handled with a SWS or a short fused 1-hr Rainfall warning. Watches from the ASPC will not be required today.
Thunderstorm outlook for Today:
Thunderstorm Forecast for WEDNESDAY:
Thunderstorms approaching severe criteria limits of 25mm/hr rainfall rates could occur in central Nfld. Labrador and the northern tier of NB will also see some slight terrain-induced instability. NS is quite conditional on sea-breezes and a Tc of 24C in clearing. NS cells will remain down the spine of the province, and will also be good rain-makers. Data will be re-assessed on tomorrow’s 12z soundings.
Thunderstorm outlook for Tomorrow:
Forecaster: TIRONE