Regional Impacts:
Today
NB/NS/PEI: isolated lightning and locally heavy downpours
NL/Labrador: None
Tonight
Labrador/PEI/NS: isolated lightning and locally heavy downpours
NB/NL: None
Thursday
Labrador/NL: isolated lightning and locally heavy downpours
NB/NS/PEI: None
Convective Discussion:
A slow moving trough of low pressure extending from a low over central Quebec will advance eastward across the Atlantic region today into Thursday. This trough is pulling in a lot of moisture from the Gulf Stream, reaching far into northern Labrador with precipitable water values in the mid 40s. Convection is expected to remain isolated in nature as the air mass is quite warm at 500 mb over the Maritimes today and reaching further north and east towards Labrador and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday, enhancing rainfall amounts. The western Maritime waters lie along the right entrance of a 120KT 250mb jet so the convection may remain mostly over the marine waters but an isolated strike cannot be ruled out further north.
As the trough continues eastward on Thursday, another short wave trough will move through western and central Labrador. CAPE values near 700 J/kg and some cooling aloft will prompt some convection in the afternoon. Effective shear will be too high (near 60Kt) to maintain any organized convection but anything that does develop could have some small hail.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:
Thunderstorm outlook for Thursday:
