Regional Impacts
Today
NB: isolated thunderstorms.. potential for small hail and gusty winds
NS/PEI/NL&Lab: None
Tonight
NB#NS/PEI/NL&Lab: None
Friday
NB/PEI/NL&Lab: None
NS: slight risk of a thunderstorm westernmost regions
Convective Discussion
The heat continues to build this morning, and as of this hour several stations in NB are reporting temperatures above 30 degrees. The ridge of high pressure over the region will begin to weaken signaling a threat for thunderstorm activity. The environment is charged with large amounts of CAPE in the mid and upper levels, mean layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Convective trigger temperature runs between 32 to 35 degrees, and the upper range makes a significant difference on the outcome of the instability. The missing ingredient is moisture, however Td’s have been slowly increasing and current values range from 12 to 16 in NB, 10 to 12 in NS, and below 10 in NF. Given the amount of instability and lifting convective initiation will likely occur over the hills of northern and central NB, and then further south during the late afternoon. The towering clouds could evolve into CB’s with tops almost reaching the tropopause with sits at about 12km this morning. Deep layer shear values are 10-15kt limiting the possibility of any storm that forms of becoming severe. The main threat with these storms will be small hair and strong wind gusts.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Friday
