Regional Impacts
Today:
NS: Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible in Cumberland county dependent on partial clearing. Better dynamics remain offshore of NS.
Tonight:
None over land.
Thursday:
NFLD: Thunderstorms are possible across portions of Newfoundland – non-severe in nature.
NS/NB: Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible, again in partial clearing.
Friday:
NB/NS: Daytime heating can contribute to convection developing across inland areas of the Maritimes. Dynamics are not overly strong, but shear is building.
Convective Discussion
The weather pattern is dominated by a stubborn upper level low centred over NB. This feature has a large cloud shield, and is funneling smoke from QUE back down and around its western side. Isolated thundershowers are possible on Wednesday where a cloud hole may occur allowing for enough daytime heating to cause enhanced lift. The dynamics at play are very weak, but we are cool aloft with a ton of boundary layer moisture. The 12z balloon from Shearwater is saturated up to 550mb. 0-6k shear is very low. However, this is the type of weather feature that tends to form funnel clouds in the fall months. Something to consider in coming days as we gain surface based thermodynamics. Nfld has better ingredients tomorrow. Shear will be 25-30kTs with a weak trigger. CAPE values of 100-200J/kg will be enough to generate excited TCUs. Friday will likely see a greater abundance of cells fire-up across the spine of NS and central NB – instability continues to increase as we remain cold aloft. Smoke activing as CIN in the mid levels will need to be re-assessed with future shifts.
Thunderstorm Outlook for TODAY
Thunderstorm Outlook for TONIGHT
Thunderstorm Outlook for THURSDAY
Preliminary Thunderstorm Outlook for FRIDAY
Forecaster: J. TIRONE