Regional Impacts
Today
Southern New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia: Embedded thundershowers are possible this evening continuing until midnight, with the hazard being moderate rain.
Labrador: over western portions non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Tonight
Elevated convection is forecast for most areas in the Maritimes overnight tonight, continuing into the morning hours of Tuesday.
Tuesday
Maritimes: Thunderstorms are forecast for many areas, with the hazard being heavy rain.
Wednesday
Energetics and dynamics are the most favourable in New Brunswick for organized storm development. Some cells could produce heavy rain and moderate sized hail.
Nova Scotia: Surface convergence is expected to aid in development of storms on the spine in western NS near Kejimkujik NP to the community of New Ross.
Newfoundland and Labrador: Embedded thundershower risk continues under same forcing progressing east slowly.
Convective Discussion
An approaching long wave trough will track eastward today with instability increasing over the AOR today. Thundershowers are in the forecast this evening and tonight into Tuesday morning in the maritime region. The biggest threat with any cells that develop is lightning, and moderate rain. Tomorrow, more widespread synoptic rain is forecast over parts of the Maritimes. VILs are over 60 in model guidance (70+ offshore). This tropical air mass with very high dew points will certainly be a rain producer in pockets. The shear environment today is complex. Low level flow is straight out of the SE. Aloft, we are W-ly. This gives a 0-6k shear of 20-25kts. CAPE today is only 200-300 J per kg in central NB in clearing. This gives an LI of only -1, so no severe hail is expected. Pwats are near 35 in most prog soundings in the RDPS. Most of this moisture can be realized so no correction factor needs to be applied (RH greater than 90 this week).
Thunderstorm Outlook for TODAY
Thunderstorm Outlook for TONIGHT
Thunderstorm Outlook for TUESDAY
Thunderstorm Outlook for WEDNESDAY
Forecaster: Tirone