Regional Impacts
NS: Pop-up thundershowers possible in central NS this afternoon. Locally heavy downpours of 10-15 mm.
NB: Pop-up thundershowers possible in SE NB this afternoon. Locally heavy downpours of 10-15 mm.
PEI: None.
NL: Embedded thundershowers possible for south-central NFLD. Heavy downpours of 20-40 mm.
Convective Discussion…
The main threat for severe weather today exists with an embedded low currently moving into Banquereau waters towards NFLD. Strong upper dynamics and mid level instability will support convection as this low approaches NFLD this afternoon. No lightning has been detected, however the feature remains highly convective with rainfall rates over 25 mm/hour possible. This feature is forecast to quickly weaken once it reaches the southern coast of NFLD later today.
A few pop-up thundershowers are also possible in central NS and SE NB this afternoon. Warm, moist air will bring SBCAPE values near 1500 J/kg which will aid in the development of convection this afternoon, a lack of upper level support however, should hinder the life span of any storm that initiates. Locally heavy downpours of 10-15 mm will be the main threat with these cells.
On Friday, another stream of moisture from the tropics will move into southwestern NS. Embedded convection within this moisture stream will lead to locally heavy downpours. PWAT values are forecast to build to 40-50 mm by the afternoon, so rainfall rates upwards of 25mm/hr are not out of the question.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Copp