Regional Impacts
NB NS PEI: Isolated thunderstorms, giving localized downpours.
NF: Scattered embedded thunderstorms over western sections, torrential rain with 30-60 mm with the highest amounts in the southwest.
Lab: Scattered thunderstorms, possibly strong later this afternoon, localized downpours of up to 20 mm, small hail, and gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Convective Discussion…
Satellite imagery shows the tropical moisture feed over western Newfoundland. Precip. Water calculated from the area sounding are ranging from 40 to 45 mm, VIL of the day guidance is showing values of 40-60 kg/m^2. While convective inhibition is still fairly high over eastern parts of NF, in the west where the 500mb thermal through lies, embedded convection will continue to support moderate to heavy rain. A slightly cyclonic southwesterly 90kt upper jet will add some dynamic support for some stronger surface-based convection over Labrador. Moderate to strong deep layer sheers will also provide an opportunity for some clusters of thunderstorms to semi-organize.
A 500mb through extends from Hudson’s Bay to the Gulf of Maine. This feature along with the upper jet and some limited insolation may provide enough energy/support for the development of isolated CB’s in the still very moist environment found over the Maritimes. Convective temperature is running around 28 for most of the areas – for areas with less cloud cover CAPE values will be approaching or even surpass 500J/kg at the peak of insulation later this afternoon. Tomorrow, the stronger convective activity will shift over eastern portions of the island of NF.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
