Regional Impacts:
Today
Labrador/NB/NS/PEI/Magdalen: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.
NL: None
Tonight
Labrador/NS/NL/PEI/Magdalen: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.
NB: None.
Tuesday
Labrador/NL/ Magdalen: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.
NS/PEI/NL: None
Convective Discussion:
The base of an upper trough will gradually move eastward today. MLCAPEs will build into the 200-500 J/Kg range by the later afternoon hours with bulk shears ~ 30 kts, however low level shear is expected to be on the low side given the lack of any significant surface feature or jets, which should limit storm organization. The most frequent lightning activity is expected to be across west-central Labrador today, where vorticity advections will be strongest aiding ascent in addition to general instability. In the Maritimes initiation will be limited until there is sufficient surface heating in combination with cooler air aloft slowing moving into the region with the upper trough.
Tonight into tomorrow morning thunderstorms will be focused mainly across the gulf, reaching western NL by the morning hours. In the southern Maritimes shears of ~50kts are expected to be too strong for the weak instability (200-400 J/Kg) to yield any storms. Further north/east into NL and Labrador this is not expected to be a problem with bulk shears lower in the range of 20-35 kts, which should once again yield non severe storms mainly focused near the upper trough. It is possible some an isolated storm may move into northern NB from the Gaspe late in the afternoon, however probability is to low to consider at this time.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight:
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow:
