Regional Impacts
Today:
NL&LAB: Risk of thunderstorms, possibility of brief heavy showers and wind gusts 50-70 km/h
Tonight:
NB NS PEI NL&LAB: None
Tuesday:
NB NS PEI NL&LAB: None
Convective Discussion
An upper trough over the Gulf of St. Lawrence will swing through NF today, it pushing ahead at the surface is a cold front currently stretching from SErn Lab to WErn NF to Cabot Strait. There is extensive cloud cover near the front and some clearing/diurnal heating will be required to destabilize the air mass. In terms of other forcing mechanism, a cyclonic upper jet btn 80-100kt is analysed over NF this morning. The moisture plume which had been impacting the region on the weekend has moved off to the Grand Banks, and precipitable water values have diminished to 25-30 mm over the island, surface Td’s are btn 15-19 degrees which is still plenty to fuel some surface-based convection. The Stephenville sounding from 12z was used to estimate the convective potential for this afternoon: a Ts,Td combination of (20,16) yields MLCAPE values in the range of 400-500 J/kg, but the deep layer shear is on the high side, maybe to high to support initiation.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
