Regional Impacts
Newfoundland and Labrador… Low probability of embedded thundershowers with rainfall rates of 15mm/hr. Over southeastern NL there may be a prolonged period of 20+mm hr rainfall rates.
Nova Scotia… low probability of TCU generating showers over central NS. Very low chance of thundershowers.
Convective Discussion
There will be a low probability of embedded thunderstorms in the moisture plume that is slowly making its way across Newfoundland today. Most unstable CAPE values are marginal, total precipitable water values are between 30 and 35mm in highest areas over NL, so it is unlikely that the highest rates will be realized unless convection becomes more prevalent. There is a very slight chance that convection may also be deep enough for thunderstorms in the low pressure trough over Labrador, for the trough over NS it is extremely unlikely to see deep convection but there is a very slight chance that a TCU or two might generate a lightning flash over central NS, but not probable. The dynamics which are quite good, may actually inhibit convection do to shearing of tcu, preventing growth.
Beyond or day one issues it looks like things are likely to dry out with high dew point temperatures returning later next week. It may very well be quite quiet over the next several days.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
