Regional Impacts
NB
Today…slight chance of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and strong wind gusts
Tomorrow… Occasional thunderstorms bring heavy downpours and some strong winds
Labrador
Tomorrow… Thunderstorms wind strong winds and some small to moderate hail, heavy rain possible.
Convective Discussion
With the very high moisture making its way over the region and the slowly approaching low pressure system we are in for a multi-day event for convective weather, beginning late today in northwest NB and slowly spreading eastward tomorrow and finally into Thursday. Quebec is expected to see severe thunderstorms today with the edge of the severe thunderstorm risk just coming into NB later today. There is some indication that some thunderstorms could organise into supercell/bow echo cells but with a significant area on convective inhibition around 700 mb it may be a challenge to get thunderstorms going. However the potential for strong surface will be a concern as the day unfolds.
Tomorrow things shift a bit becoming more favourable for a multicell situation with the potential for heavy rain, should storms become organised (ie training thunderstorms) some areas of New Brunswick could receive more than the highlighted amounts in the forecast for day 2. For Labrador tomorrow the environment will move to a supercell/bow echo situation so strong wind gust to warning level a certainly possible. Paying close attention to overshooting tops and lightning will be helpful in the absence of radar data.
As we move into Thursday the dynamics will become more favourable for severe thunderstorms for the remaining areas of the Atlantic provinces please stay tuned as the situation develops over the next couple of days.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon