Pages

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Labrador… A risk of severe thunderstorms over western areas with some potential for significant wind gusts and heavy downpours.

Maritimes… Some embedded thunderstorms tomorrow in showers and rain moving in from the south during the day.

 

 

Convective Discussion

 

The potential for severe thunderstorms edging into western Labrador still persists for today. It is possible that the most severe storms will remain in Quebec, but should storms track into Labrador there is a reasonable chance that some will produce very strong wind gusts. Lightning and satellite should be monitored closely.  Weak upper ridging could be sufficient to limit convection early in the day, however wind shear is favourable for the development of some discrete supercells, with strong shear to 3 km it is likely that strong rear flank downdraft could develop on some of these storms.

 

For the remainder of the Atlantic provinces today there is little to know risk of thunderstorms, however there is a risk of some embedded thunderstorms in the moisture plume moving into the region tomorrow. At this point the instability isn’t looking high enough for torrential downpours but with PWAT values near 50mm there is still some potential for heavy rainfall rates should thunderstorms develop.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

 

Mel Lemmon