Regional Impacts
Today
NB/LAB…Isolated thundershowers giving locally heavy downpours of 10 to 15 mm/h.
NS/PEI…None
Tomorrow
NB…Isolated to scattered thundershowers giving locally heavy downpours of 15 to 25 mm/h.
LAB… Isolated thundershowers giving locally heavy downpours of 10 to 15 mm/h.
NS/PEI…None
Convective Discussion
An upper low is expected to slowly move across southern Quebec today then south into Maine tomorrow. Clear skies across much of Maine, New Brunswick and southern Labrador this morning will aid in increasing instability and allow for pop-up convection ahead and near the centre of this low this afternoon and again tomorrow. There is little in the way of shear but with there will be an increase in precipitable water (25 to 35 mm) by tomorrow over western New Brunswick, so some locally heavy downpours are possible in slow moving storms. MLCAPE is forecasted to be near 1000 J/kg over much of New Brunswick tomorrow, but shear remains near 15KT, so not expecting severe thunderstorms to develop beyond heavy downpours. The amount of surface heating and a warm cap near 700 mb will be the main factors if convection develops over the spine of Nova Scotia on Monday afternoon.
A low pressure system will develop on Monday south of the Maritime marine district and track northeastward towards eastern Newfoundland Monday night. This low may have some embedded convection, especially near and ahead of the low centre.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Roberta McArthur
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