Regional Impacts
Maritimes: Risk of embedded TS with rainfall rates of 10 to 15 mm/h this afternoon and overnight.
Labrador: Slight risk of a thundershowers for western areas tomorrow.
Convective Discussion
A trough associated with a low pressure system over James Bay will bring a broad destabilization with cooling aloft throughout the day but MUCAPE remains minimal with at most 250 J/kg and may not break through the warmer air still remaining from 700 to 500 mb. There will be some lift near 850 mb from a 35 KT LLJ and weak effective shear to help generate a few embedded thundershowers across western New Brunswick this afternoon ahead of the main trough still over Quebec. Storm motion should keep overall precipitation lower and the system moves across the Maritimes tonight, but with precipitable water of 30 to 40 mm moving through with this system, there may still be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
The trough moves into Newfoundland on Wednesday with moderate rainfall possible while behind and south of the low as if tracks over northern Quebec will enable weak pop-up convection over western and central Labrador.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Roberta McArthur
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