Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today: No thunderstorms expected with a trailing cold front departing, smoke aloft, and general building ridge conditions.

Tonight: No convective activity. Pockets of frost.

Tomorrow: Non-severe thundershowers/showers are forecast across portions of eastern and northern mainland NS in the afternoon from daytime heating. Labrador could see a few ridge-rider cells move from the NW to the SE in the day. Airmass is fairly dry and only a few mm of rain would be expected.

Sunday: Weak trof line across northern tier of NB and SE Labrador. No hazards expected other than a lightning strike or 2.

Convective Discussion

Much quieter day than yesterday expected. Cold front and Jet dynamics have pulled out of the Maritimes. Mid-levels are drying out significantly on this morning’s soundings. Sfc dewpoints in NB are struggling to reach 5 in places. Haze and smoke aloft are also further adding to stability. Saturday has low and skinny CAPE, and minimal shear (effective is only 10kts) across parts of NS – could see a spark or 2 with the tallest TCU. Single cell is the expected storm mode with not much motion. Sunday, this setup is established in northern NB and across eastern Labrador. Risk of -TS is now in the public bulletins.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today