Regional Impacts
Today: No thunderstorms forecast over land regions of the Maritimes. Not enough lift available with an advancing warm nose between 850 and 700 mb.
Tonight: No thunderstorms forecast.
Monday: Non-severe thundershowers are possible in extreme NWrn NB late in the day, as well as in extreme western Labrador. The main hazard with these cells would be lightning.
Tuesday (Canada Day): A broader area of convection is possible across a large portion of the Maritimes and forecasters will be updating hazards in next 24hrs.
Convective Discussion
Warm air advection is advancing into the Maritimes and as such, there is a cap in place. Dominant showers and drizzle lack the colder mid levels and cloud tops to produce charge separation and lightning. There is an area of organized convection across the southern marine district which will slowly drift SE today, enhanced by warmer sfc waters of the gulf stream. Humidity is forecast to increase early this week and an advancing trof late in the day on Tuesday may be enough to destabilize and trigger organized convection. However, there remains uncertainty about the timing of this slow-moving feature. Details will be honed in coming forecasts, as the feature is timed across the Great Lakes region. (The Grey hazard area on day3 may be upgraded.)
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday
Forecaster: Tirone.
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