Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today: There is an ongoing risk of thunderstorms across southwestern areas of Nova Scotia this morning. Storms are expected to re-develop across southern NB and NS this afternoon along a 2^nd frontal boundary. Main hazards being repetitive rain and small hail.

Tonight, into Saturday morning: A risk of thunderstorms, likely embedded, continues across much of the same areas of the Maritimes.

Saturday afternoon: Some minor convection possible across extreme northwestern tier of NB and to the southeast of Goose Bay. (highly dependent on smoke in mid levels and aloft). Synoptic rain and strong gusty winds are forecast for much of the southern/central Maritimes Saturday night.

Sunday: No Thunderstorms expected with synoptic low pulling away.

Convective Discussion

A complex weather set up synoptically with many factors at play. First off: the smoke. A smoky cap should remain in place across central and northern NB today, preventing sufficient lift. Secondly, a low churning south of NS over the marine district is firing storms this morning with enhanced lift both off the associated inverted trof and the terrain of inland NS. The 3^rd feature will be later today that will bring another round of TS activity – the broader trof cutting thru New England at this time. With dew points near 16 and climbing, there is ample moisture and moisture advection. This leads to the hazard forecast being rain, and rounds of rain. Pwats range 20-40mm today and tonight. This corresponds to a Grey hazard area, but if a storm doesn’t move much or keeps re-developing over 1 area, it could amount to a warning level of rainfall locally. A watch will be carefully considered early this afternoon for southwestern NS. Small hail is also possible in the most organized cells. Skinny Cape, and a small warm nose this morning was easily overcome by the synoptic forcings at play. Sunday (Day3) is progged to be quiet at this time on the stable backside of a departing Low.

Thunderstorm Outlook for TODAY