Regional Impacts
Today: scattered thunderstorms for western Labrador giving some gusty winds. Isolated thunderstorms for parts of the Maritimes giving torrential rainfall and gusty winds.
Tonight: risk of a thunderstorm for portions of Labrador and the Maritimes. Mainly heavy rainfall possible in the Maritimes.
Wednesday: an afternoon risk of thunderstorms for southeastern Labrador. New Brunswick and western PEI.
Convective Discussion
An elongated trough of low pressure stretching from LAB and NE will progress slowly eastward today giving some scattered thunderstorms for western LAB this afternoon. Some gusty winds to about 70 km/h seem to be the main threat in the stronger cells. The dynamics are slightly weaker as we head south to NB, but the Pwats increase so locally heavy rainfall, along with some decent wind gusts, are the main concern. Instability is relatively weak, so I don’t expect much of a hail threat anywhere today. Will have to see if we get some elevated convection fire up west of NS later this afternoon that could give some hefty downpours for some counties this evening. There has been some history of lightning but currently there is a lull. We shall see…
That same trough will continue tracking eastward tonight and into Wednesday giving the risk of a thunderstorm to a good chunk of the region. It will be weakening so the risk is marginal at this time.
There is no prog sent for D3 but based on current guidance, there could be some strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms across parts of NB. I just don’t have the confidence to draw a threat area this far in advance.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Jeremy
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