Regional Impacts
Today
NB: isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening giving some gusty winds, heavy downpours, and possibly small hail. Do not expect any cells to become severe.
NS and southeastern NL: risk of an elevated thunderstorm today and into this evening giving locally heavy downpours.
Tonight
Southeastern NL: continuing with the risk of an elevated thunderstorm through the overnight and into Saturday morning giving locally heavy downpours.
Saturday
Lab: slight risk of an afternoon thunderstorm.
Convective Discussion
A couple features of interest today: one is a frontal trough passing south of NS and the other a 500 mb trough entering NB. There has been some history of activity with both features, more notably the upper trough. The instability doesn’t appear as deep as it was yesterday when the trough was upstream in Quebec, and the feature itself is showing some signs of weakening. There should be some isolated storms in Maine that will drift across inro western NB through the afternoon giving some gusty winds, locally heavy downpours and small hail. The 12Z tephi out of caribou has pretty weak shear but the FZLVL is just above 10,000 ft so the chance for small hail seems legit.
The trough currently passing south of NS and approaching southeastern NF will produce some isolated thunderstorms offshore with a slight chance it could touch the Burin and southern Avalon tonight and into Saturday morning. The instability is pretty good but quite high so we shall see if anything does materialize. Locally heavy downpours would be the only threat.
Lastly a weak surface trough could be enough to trigger an isolated thunderstorm or 2 across parts of the Big Land on Saturday.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Jeremy