Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Labrador … A few thunderstorms possible along cold front today, heavier showers and some wind gusts possible.

NFLD… No thunderstorms expected.

NB…Thunderstorms this possible this afternoon and this evening, locally heavy downpours and strong wind gusts are possible.

NS and PEI… Some thunderstorms could affect PEI and northern NS this evening.

Convective Discussion

Unsettled weather will continue over the next few days. An approaching cold front is expected to trigger some surface-based convection today over Labrador and into New Brunswick. While instability in Labrador is not particularly high, the fast-moving upper trough may destabilize the atmosphere more than models currently suggest. Some gusty winds may be possible in stronger cells, but they are expected to remain below warning criteria.

Over New Brunswick, strong wind shear, high moisture, and moderate CAPE could support the development of some intense cells. With strong linear shear in place, cells are expected to move quickly — roughly east to southeast at 25–30 knots — which may help limit the overall heavy rainfall potential. However, rainfall rates could still be very high, with some potential for localized flash flooding.

Although some convection is possible this afternoon, the more likely scenario is for deeper convective cells to move into western parts of the province by early this evening. If severe thunderstorm alerts are issued they would likely be later in the day.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today