Regional Impacts
Newfoundland and Labrador… Some isolated thunderstorms over Labrador today and tomorrow, strong wind gusts and heavy downpours possible.
NB… No impacts expected.
NS… No impacts expected.
PEI… No impacts expected.
Convective Discussion
Labrador will experience the bulk of convective activity over the next two days, with the potential for severe thunderstorms, including discrete supercells. Atmospheric dynamics are generally favourable, with deep-layer wind shear between 40–50 knots and 0–3 km shear values of 30–40 knots. Moderate CAPE values will also contribute to storm development, with some areas exceeding 1000 J/kg.
For the most part, the shear is predominantly linear, and triggering mechanisms will be somewhat limited. Troughing and surface convergence are expected to be subtle, and differential heating may play an ongoing role. Clear skies will enhance solar insolation, further aiding destabilization.
If severe storms develop, it is unlikely that any single community will be directly affected unless an organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) forms, producing a more continuous gust front. We will monitor satellite and lightning detection closely as the day progresses.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon
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