Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts…

Today

NB/NS/PEI: Scattered severe thundershowers.

Labrador/Newfoundland: Scattered non-severe thundershowers.

Tonight

NS/PEI/Newfoundland: Scattered non-severe thundershowers.

NB/Labrador: None.

Friday

Newfoundland: Scattered non-severe thundershowers.

NB/NS/PEI/Labrador: None.

Convective Discussion

A cold front stretching from Labrador to central New Brunswick will slowly continue eastward today. Over southern New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and portions of Nova Scotia severe weather is possible near and ahead of the front this afternoon and evening. CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are expected and effective shear will be 20-30 knots. Additionally, a supportive right entrance region of the upper jet will move over southern New Brunswick this afternoon and support convection. The airmass ahead of the cold front remains very moist with PWAT values of 40-50 mm. Due to some cloud cover, the thunderstorms will be a combination of embedded and surface based. Over western Newfoundland and eastern Labrador, non-severe thundershowers are likely today. CAPE values of 500-750 J/kg are expected with effective shear of 20-30 knots. There is a fair amount of cloud cover so that should mitigate severe weather there. On Friday, non-severe thundershowers are expected over eastern Newfoundland associated with the same cold front.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today