Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today: scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Big Land this afternoon and into this evening giving locally heavy rainfall and possibly small hail. A slight risk of a thunderstorm early this afternoon for far northern NB. Also, a slight risk of an embedded thundershower early this afternoon for the eastern Avalon.

Tonight: risk of thunderstorms for central areas of Labrador.

Convective Discussion

Decent dynamics at play today for a good portion of Labrador as a strong short wave trough ahead of the main long wave trough gives way to thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly across the interior, but they will likely traverse east northeastward and into coastal areas later today then over the Labrador Sea tonight given the good upper support. Locally heavy rainfall seems to be the main threat but gusty winds as well, given the effective shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. The 12Z tephi out of YZV shows some steep lapse rates in the mid levels so, given some sunshine, could produce modest CAPE and enough updraft to support small hail in the stronger cells. I do not expect severe criteria to met. There will be a slight risk of an early afternoon thunderstorm for far northern NB as that short wave passes north of the region and into Labrador, but time is running out on that happening. Lastly a slight risk of an early afternoon embedded thundershower for the eastern Avalon as a thermal ridge moves east of the island.

There is a risk of thunderstorms for central Labrador through the night as that short wave trough remains in the area.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today