Regional Impacts
Today
NB/PEI/NS: scattered risk of an embedded non-severe thundershower across the Maritimes this morning and again this afternoon/evening.
NFLD/LAB: isolated chance of a lightning strike or two later today near the Burin, and also south of Goose Bay along a deformation zone.
Tonight
NS/PEI/NFLD: embedded elevated non-severe convection is forecast to pull away to the SE over the marine district tonight. It may graze the Avalon overnight.
NB/LAB: none.
Monday
LAB : convection is possible near Nain throughout the day. Forecast to be non-severe in nature.
NB/NS/PEI/NFLD: no thunderstorms forecast. Much of Nfld is receiving synoptic scale rain.
Convective Discussion
The dewpoints rose last night as forecast to near 16 across the Maritimes, paving the way for this morning’s first round of early convection. CAPE remains very skinny today, with not much shear involved (in the effective levels). These warm frontal showers are giving bursts of heavy rainfall then subsiding to mist/fog patches. A partial clearing is possible for some areas of central and western Nova Scotia near noon today. Then a slumping cold front will force another round of scattered TS – main hazard again being lightning and heavier pockets of rain. Pwats on morning soundings to the west sit near 35mm. This is under severe alert criteria as long as storms continue moving and don’t sit too long over one location. There is decent flow at 850 and above so storms are expected to progress Ely. The adjacent gulf shores will be gustiest this evening behind the passage of the front (G70km/h). Nfld will be getting the brunt of the rain from the “now forming” synoptic low tonight and tomorrow. Isolated thundershowers are possible off to its East (depicted in grey area). The Maritimes are stabilizing on Monday and quiet SVR weather wise. Summer heat builds in again this week.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.