Regional Impacts
Today
Labrador: Isolated thundershowers possible over southwestern Labrador this afternoon with locally heavy downpours.
NS/NB/PEI/NFLD: None.
Tonight
NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None
Tomorrow
NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.
Convective Discussion…
With a ridge of high pressure over the central Maritimes today, not much is expected in the way of convection. A slight risk area does exist over southwestern Labrador today, where a 500 mb jet exiting the region in conjunction with a weak shortwave may provide enough support for some isolated thundershowers this afternoon given sufficient surface heating. MUCAPE values of 250 to 500 J/kg and effective shear around 15 to 25 kts should be enough to support a few lightning strikes in the area. Although quite a bit of cloud cover is lingering over northern Quebec, some signs of clearing are evident this morning. The only other issue is a lack of low-level moisture over the area which is keeping the risk level low and as such, any storms that do initiate will likely be elevated.
High resolution guidance is hinting at some potential convective activity over the Gaspe Peninsula into northeastern New Brunswick later this afternoon. 12Z soundings in the area indicate a weak thermal trough in the mid to upper levels, however the thermal ridge remains strong and intact at 850 mb. With a lack of upper level support over this region, any storms that do fire would likely be surface-based, but with the capping at 850 surface-based initiation is unlikely. A lack of low-level moisture here in combination with daytime highs near 30 degrees also indicate that storms are unlikely to fire in this region.
Tonight and tomorrow, there is a slight risk of some elevated thundershower activity off the southwest coast of Nova Scotia associated with a weak shortwave, but no impacts are expected over land.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Copp