Regional Impacts
Today
NB: Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and early evening. Severe storms are possible along and south of Highway 2, with gusty winds and moderate hail. (Depicted in yellow).
PE/NS: Some of these storms may survive across the Strait and Bay entering PEI/NS this evening in their late stages of development. They won’t be building any further at this point. (Depicted in grey)
Cape Breton/Avalon/Burin: Embedded -TS risk near noon and this afternoon along the Atlantic coast and offshore. Heavy rain occurring in areas, but no other hazards forecast.
Tonight
Atlantic: No thunderstorms forecast in the overnight time period.
Tomorrow
Western Labrador: Thunderstorms are forecast to re-develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Some may approach marginal severe limits.
NB: Western and northern areas of the province could see a few lightning strikes as thunderstorms re-develop in the afternoon. Not forecast as severe at this time.
Friday
NS: Western NS and the Annapolis Valley could see organized convection that approaches severe limits. This will be analyzed further in coming shifts.
Convective Discussion
There is ample moisture again today across the Maritimes. LL cloud/fog is expected to burn back in NB late this morning, setting the stage. Today, a forcing at the 500mb level is at play. This thermal trof is expected to sweep through NB this afternoon, and brings the chance of all hazards to areas in the province (depicted in yellow). MLCAPE sits near 1800J with Effective shear values 30-40kts. Watches will likely be issued in the area of Woodstock and Fredericton. Dewpoints across NS are also near 15 this AM, but there is a lack of a sfc forcing as the synoptic rain effects most of the central and eastern region at present. If a discrete line of storms is able to form in SW-SE NB, the biggest hazard is the wind threat. Gusts could be over 90km/h in an organized complex – storm motion to the ESE. These cells also may survive across the Northumberland Strait and Bay of Fundy with a strong 700 steering flow late day today. The grey hazard area is extended to reflect this evening risk. It should also be noted that helicity today is non-zero. This, along with low freezing levels, will be monitored closely.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.