Regional Impacts
Labrador… Risk of thunderstorms today across western and central areas – may approach severe limits briefly in the Churchill Falls area today with gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Nova Scotia… Chance of thundershowers in the overnight tonight with shower activity arriving from the SW. This risk extends eastwards in the day on Thursday. Moderate rainfall is the only hazard being forecast over land areas.
New Brunswick… Risk of an isolated thunderstorm near the Quebec border in the afternoon on Thursday.
Convective Discussion
The synoptic pattern is slowly advancing to the east in the next 24 to 48hrs. This brings a change in the weather across the Maritimes.
Ample surface moisture is in place today(dew points near 19), and effective shear(30kts) in the vicinity of the 2 forcings is good. The delay in anything getting going is simply the pace of the trigger itself. In Labrador, the trof will spark up this afternoon and may bring gusty winds and decent downpours. Small hail is also possible but shouldn’t exceed 1.5cm. Offshore from NS over the southwestern marine district, severe storms are possible and may form a decent line bringing gusts to near 90km/h. This will be monitored in case Squall watches or Warnings are required (depicted in yellow). As the low continues to wrap further and slowly advance east tonight, the thundershower risk moves into Nova Scotia. But it is forecast to be embedded in the overall greater shower activity (depicted in grey). It’s very warm at 700mb and quite dry in the upper levels this morning(Yarmouth sounding). Going to take some time to moisten the entire column to support any lightning activity. By tomorrow afternoon, the 100kt southerly jet at 250mb is just east of Halifax and situated as such that severe weather is not being forecast over any land areas. The orientation is not conducive this time.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.