Regional Impacts
Today
NB/NS/PEI/NL: Risk of thunderstorms giving brief strong winds gusts, small hail and locally heavy downpours. Risk of higher gusts for southwestern New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia this evening.
Lab: Slight risk of a thundershower giving small hail.
Tonight
NL: Slight risk of a thundershower.
NB/PEI/NS/LAB: None
Tomorrow
None
Convective Discussion
An upper low over Labrador will remain stationary today while a quick moving shortwave trough will move from Quebec towards central Maine then southern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia late this afternoon and towards southern Newfoundland by the evening. There is the possibility of pop-up convection ahead of the trough this afternoon where much of the Maritimes is clear this morning, allowing convective temperatures to be reached, especially across PEI, eastern Nova Scotia and southwestern Newfoundland once clouds clear early this afternoon. With relatively dry dew points over the Maritimes under a westerly flow, precipitable water of 15 to 20 mm and relatively weak CAPE (500J/kg), thunderstorms that develop are expected to be non-severe. However, with the trough, dynamics are most favoured in the exit region of a strong 250mb jet moving into southwestern New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia. This area may also see a slight increase in precipitable water and CAPE values in this area may exceed 750 J/kg and effective shear increasing to 50 kts based off Maniwaki and Gray 12Z soundings. Organization is possible with the main threats being strong wind gusts and small hail if a line develops. The risk of more elevated convection will continue tonight into Newfoundland. Under the low over Labrador, showers are expected with the risk of convection east of the low. CAPE is quite low but with very cold air aloft, small hail is possible.
For tomorrow, the upper low will slowly make its way eastward by the evening. Other than continued scattered showers with the upper low, the risk of convection at this time is low.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
