Today’s Regional Impacts
Labrador… thunderstorms are possible with small hail and gusty winds.
Northeastern NB/Bay of Chaleur area … isolated non-severe thundershower is possible late this afternoon and early this evening.
Convective Discussion
Today is a calm day with moderate humidity and hazy skies across the Maritimes. Sfc dew points are in the mid teens, but a capping ridge is in place. Yarmouth 12z sounding shows very dry air between 850 and 500. Without a trigger, thunderstorms are not forecast for PEI, NS, central/southern NB, and Nfld. Labrador will see thunderstorms develop due to an area of low pressure that is advancing east out of northern Quebec. Goose Bay 12z balloon shows Pwats near 26 this morning. Forest fire smoke is the catch though -- that may hinder some development.
Tomorrow across the Maritimes is a much different story. The ingredients for severe weather are likely to come together at the peak of daytime heating. This could lead to elevated hail, wind, and rainfall rate risks. Additionally, some indices are showing a non-zero tornadic risk in parts of NB. A properly aligned low level jet and high CAPE values (for this time of year) will be closely monitored tomorrow. An area marked in yellow has been used in the day 2 outlook to depict the heightened weather risk for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may make it into the Northumberland Strait area and Bay of Fundy by late evening.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.