Regional Impacts
Labrador… low chance of a weak thunderstorm.
NS, PEI, NB, NFLD… no thunderstorms expected.
Convective Discussion
We are looking at a relatively dry and stable airmass for the next two days across most of the region. A low pressure system over Labrador, combined with some convergence and daytime heating, may be sufficient to produce a few lightning strikes. However, CAPE is very weak and shear is minimal, so there is no risk of significant impacts from thunderstorms.
By Wednesday, a low pressure system moving across Quebec will help bring more substantial low-level moisture into the region. There is a slight chance that severe thunderstorms could develop over New Brunswick, but with the event still three days away, there remains too much uncertainty to quantify the potential impacts. It is also possible that elevated convection could impact Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland during this period with heavy rainfall. Tomorrow's guidance should provide a clearer outlook.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon