Regional Impacts
Today:
NL : Risk of a thunderstorm west of the Avalon Peninsula giving strong winds, small hail and locally heavy downpours. Risk of a thunderstorm over the Northern Peninsula giving strong winds, small hail, and locally heavy downpours.
LAB: Risk of a thunderstorm giving strong winds, small hail, and locally heavy downpours over central and eastern regions.
NS/NS/PEI : NIL
Tonight :
None
Tomorrow :
Lab : Risk of an isolated thundershower over the central regions.
NL/NS/NB/PEI : NIL
Convective Discussion
As a ridge continues to build over the Maritimes, a low-pressure system south of Greenland is allowing several jets to align just off the northern shores. Surface analysis shows these jets stacked on top of each other over the north coast, along with some slight convergence area both at the surface and at 850mb. Additionally, with this storm south of Greenland there is multiple embedded short-waves moving in a Northwest-Southeast direction. These features along with dewpoints forecasted to remain near 12°C with temperatures rising to near 25, there is a risk for some thunderstorms that are capable of producing strong winds, hail up to 2cm. There remains once again some model uncertainty between the RDPS and HRDPS. Upon closer inspection of the 00z Soundings and the 12z Stephenville Soundings, the HRDPS has a much better initialization when compared to the RDPS. This is important to note as there are significant differences in thunderstorm potential between the HRDPS and RDPS for regions near the Avalon (with the RDPS being the lesser of the two). All of this being said, over Labrador, there were some early morning lightning strikes that occurred, but the main struggle for today will be fighting off the smoke in the regions. Looking at the observations from Wabush, there have been consistently reports of smoke, which would act as an inhibitor to convection today.
For tonight, convective activity is not expected to occur. This is primarily due to smoke continuing to move into the region and overnight stability setting in.
Tomorrow, there is a chance of thunderstorms developing. These thunderstorms are likely to be terrain-induced near Happy Valley Goose Bay. There will be continued smoke moving in from Quebec, but models currently show smoke clearing out of this region as a slow-moving system over Hudson Bay progresses eastward.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Lambert/Firth