Regional Impacts
Today
Labrador: slight risk of a thundershower along an elongated trof in western areas stemming from Quebec, similar to yesterday.
Tonight
None expected over land areas.
Tomorrow
Labrador: advancing trof bringing in slightly better dynamics for taller and more organized thunderstorms. Gusty winds, small hail, and brief but heavy downpours are possible.
NB: Thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening as the cap is finally able to break in this airmass (mainly tied to geography). Small hail and heavy downpours are possible.
NS: Guidance is suggesting the cap will break in the afternoon for an isolated region along the “spine” and the South Shore. Heavy downpours are possible. These cells will move south over the coastline/water late in the day.
Convective Discussion
This morning, Nfld is in the overcast and drizzle regime thanks to the occluded low churning in the Atlantic to their east. Western Labrador has a chance of seeing some thundershower activity forced by the very elongated trof in Quebec.
The Maritimes are well into day 2 of their heat event under a strong and humid ridge of high pressure. Dew points are becoming tropical and are near 19 in places this AM. Thunderstorm activity is not forecast today in these stable conditions. However, tomorrow there are signals that this may start to break down. And so, TS risks are being added in some areas on Friday. MLCAPE tomorrow is 1000 in places, and 20-30kts effective shear. This will be monitored closely to see where the subtle triggers set up tomorrow.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.