Regional Impacts
NS… no thunderstorms expected.
PEI… no thunderstorms expected.
NB… tomorrow, some isolated thunderstorms possible with heavy downpours.
Newfoundland and Labrador… isolated pulse storms possible, showers with small hail or graupel possible.
Convective Discussion
For today, little convective activity is expected. A few lightning strikes are possible over central Newfoundland and western Labrador. Although upper-level support is fairly benign, a cold trough at 500 hPa may support weak updraft development. No hazardous weather is expected; however, any thunderstorms that do develop could produce locally heavier rainfall rates.
For tomorrow, stronger dynamics will move across western New Brunswick, with approximately 40 knots of deep-layer shear and total precipitable water values increasing to above 35 mm. However, surface-based convection may struggle to develop due to extensive cloud cover and a lack of strong low-level forcing. Earlier in the day, some embedded convection is possible, but the main potential for hazardous weather would occur later in the day if surface-based convection can develop.
Updraft strength is expected to remain a limiting factor, and mixed-layer CAPE values may not be sufficient to support deep convection. Additional guidance and observations tomorrow should provide a clearer picture of the overall severe weather potential.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Mel Lemmon