Regional Impacts
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over northwestern New Brunswick and spread eastward into the evening. Heavy downpours can be expected with rainfall amounts possibly exceeding 25 mm in the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind gusts may occur but are not expected to approach warning criteria. Some small hail is possible.
Convective Discussion
The primary concern is heavy rainfall due to the high amounts of available moisture content. Deep wind shear values are generally less than 30 knots and long lived supercells are not expected. It is possible that storms could become weakly organised into a mesoscale convective system but rainfall will remain the primary concern.
For Thursday, rainfall remains the primary concern, however stronger wind gusts can be expected.
Mel Lemmon
