Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts…

No thunderstorms are expected today.

 

For tomorrow…

New Brunswick… Thunderstorms are expected late tomorrow for western parts of the province with locally heavy downpours of 25mm and wind gusts to 60km/hr.

 

Convective Discussion…

 

For the most part convection will be fairly settled today as an upper ridge builds across the region. Shallow convection is possible but strong updrafts are not expected to develop into thunderstorms.

Tomorrow  as the upper ridge gradually breaks down and low level moisture begins to increase the likelihood of deep convection will increase. Overall Cape values will not be high at ~ 500j/kg, precipitable water values will be above 40mm and low lever shear values will likely be around 30 knots. This could lead to some organised convection with locally heavy downpours possibly exceeding 25mm and strong wind gusts.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 *No Thunderstorms Expected

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Regional Impacts

Slight chance of thundershowers over portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland.

 

Convective Discussion

A chance of embedded convection along the track of an approaching upper low.

Convective Outlook Valid for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Regional Impacts

No inland thunderstorms expected.

Convective Discussion

Isolated convection along the frontal boundary and in the vicinity of the associated upper low approaching Nova Scotia.

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Regional Impacts

No inland thunderstorms expected at this time.

Convective Discussion

Isolated convection along the frontal boundary over southern waters.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

No thunderstorms expected over land at this time.

Re: Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

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Subject: Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Regional Impacts

Nothing significant for Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick. A chance for isolated showers with near severe rainfall amounts and gusty winds.

 

Convective Discussion

We continue with a deep ridge south, a deep trough extending from Labrador southwest to the Great Lakes, slanting down to a weak low near PEI with cold front extending southwest. NS is in the warm sector, with a weak thermal ridge moving east and weak cold advection approaching. Moisture is good again with PWATs near 40 mm and dewpoints inland in the low twenties, deep layer shear is near 45 kts. If  some clearing occurs, there's enough instability to give some healthy thundershowers and gusty winds. Freezing levels are near 14k feet, so significant hail is unlikely.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

Nothing expected over land.