Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Convective Outlook for Day 1 – JULY 7th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thundershowers are forecast for offshore waters and coastal areas of Labrador with the passage of a weak cold front.

 

Convective Discussion

Most areas in the Maritimes are strongly capped at 700mb with a building ridge off to our west. Any cells that do develop over the marine district will be non-severe with lightning and pockets of heavy showers as the main hazard.

 

 

Convective Outlook for Day 2 – JULY 8th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe elevated convection is possible late in the day with an advancing tropical airmass over extreme southwestern Nova Scotia and the Bay of Fundy.

 

Convective Discussion

Main hazards from this would be locally heavy downpours and lightning. Storms will be moving quite quickly along the sub-tropical jet.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

For Labrador…

Isolated Thunderstorms producing locally 20mm of rain and potentially gusting winds to 60 km/hr.

 

For New Brunswick…

Scattered thunderstorms potentially in the late afternoon or evening. Possibly winds gusting to 70km/hr and locally 25mm for northwestern areas.

 

For PEI…

Isolated Thunderstorms possible this evening.

 

Convective Discussion

Thunderstorm development today will depend on the weakening upper ridge and the timing of the approaching cold front. There is the expectation that low level moisture will continue to build today leading to an increase in thunderstorm potential with some organised storms possibly developing. Most of the initiation will be in Quebec with storms eventually moving into the Atlantic region late this afternoon. The overall threat of severe weather is low but that outlook may change if a linear feature forms along the cold front and moves over the area.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts…

No thunderstorms are expected today.

 

For tomorrow…

New Brunswick… Thunderstorms are expected late tomorrow for western parts of the province with locally heavy downpours of 25mm and wind gusts to 60km/hr.

 

Convective Discussion…

 

For the most part convection will be fairly settled today as an upper ridge builds across the region. Shallow convection is possible but strong updrafts are not expected to develop into thunderstorms.

Tomorrow  as the upper ridge gradually breaks down and low level moisture begins to increase the likelihood of deep convection will increase. Overall Cape values will not be high at ~ 500j/kg, precipitable water values will be above 40mm and low lever shear values will likely be around 30 knots. This could lead to some organised convection with locally heavy downpours possibly exceeding 25mm and strong wind gusts.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 *No Thunderstorms Expected

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Regional Impacts

Slight chance of thundershowers over portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland.

 

Convective Discussion

A chance of embedded convection along the track of an approaching upper low.

Convective Outlook Valid for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Regional Impacts

No inland thunderstorms expected.

Convective Discussion

Isolated convection along the frontal boundary and in the vicinity of the associated upper low approaching Nova Scotia.