Convective Outlook valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – JULY 9th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thunderstorms are forecast for Nova Scotia, PEI, Cape Breton, and parts of New Brunswick as Elsa approaches the Maritimes and passes over this evening.

 

Convective Discussion

With today’s storms, heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main threats. Convection is possible on Elsa’s eastern side as a warm tropical airmass gets pumped into the region and the circulation brings decent midlevel shear. Freezing levels are very high so hail is not expected. Any discrete cells over the marine district could be marginally severe this afternoon and evening with gusts above 70km/h.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – JULY 10th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thunderstorms are possible for areas of southwestern Nova Scotia and SE New Brunswick, in clearing behind Elsa.

 

Convective Discussion

Storms will be short lived and very isolated. Highly dependent on back-side clearing of synoptic driven clouds.

 

FW: Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

 

 

From: AD CPIA / ASPC DS (EC) <adcpia-aspcds@ec.gc.ca>
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Subject: Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – JULY 8th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thunderstorms are forecast for areas of southwestern Nova Scotia and the valley this afternoon and evening.

 

Convective Discussion

Storms will be elevated in nature, with lightning being the main hazard. Heaviest rainfall will be over the southern marine district, where up to 45mm could fall in a strong pulse cell.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – JULY 9th

 

Regional Impacts

Embedded non-severe convection is possible in isolated pockets associated with the passage of post-tropical storm Elsa.

 

Convective Discussion

Main hazards from any cell that does develop would be locally heavy downpours and lightning. Storms will be moving quite quickly along the 500mb steering flow. Additionally, plentiful cloud cover will keep discrete storm development to a minimum.

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Convective Outlook for Day 1 – JULY 7th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thundershowers are forecast for offshore waters and coastal areas of Labrador with the passage of a weak cold front.

 

Convective Discussion

Most areas in the Maritimes are strongly capped at 700mb with a building ridge off to our west. Any cells that do develop over the marine district will be non-severe with lightning and pockets of heavy showers as the main hazard.

 

 

Convective Outlook for Day 2 – JULY 8th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe elevated convection is possible late in the day with an advancing tropical airmass over extreme southwestern Nova Scotia and the Bay of Fundy.

 

Convective Discussion

Main hazards from this would be locally heavy downpours and lightning. Storms will be moving quite quickly along the sub-tropical jet.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

For Labrador…

Isolated Thunderstorms producing locally 20mm of rain and potentially gusting winds to 60 km/hr.

 

For New Brunswick…

Scattered thunderstorms potentially in the late afternoon or evening. Possibly winds gusting to 70km/hr and locally 25mm for northwestern areas.

 

For PEI…

Isolated Thunderstorms possible this evening.

 

Convective Discussion

Thunderstorm development today will depend on the weakening upper ridge and the timing of the approaching cold front. There is the expectation that low level moisture will continue to build today leading to an increase in thunderstorm potential with some organised storms possibly developing. Most of the initiation will be in Quebec with storms eventually moving into the Atlantic region late this afternoon. The overall threat of severe weather is low but that outlook may change if a linear feature forms along the cold front and moves over the area.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts…

No thunderstorms are expected today.

 

For tomorrow…

New Brunswick… Thunderstorms are expected late tomorrow for western parts of the province with locally heavy downpours of 25mm and wind gusts to 60km/hr.

 

Convective Discussion…

 

For the most part convection will be fairly settled today as an upper ridge builds across the region. Shallow convection is possible but strong updrafts are not expected to develop into thunderstorms.

Tomorrow  as the upper ridge gradually breaks down and low level moisture begins to increase the likelihood of deep convection will increase. Overall Cape values will not be high at ~ 500j/kg, precipitable water values will be above 40mm and low lever shear values will likely be around 30 knots. This could lead to some organised convection with locally heavy downpours possibly exceeding 25mm and strong wind gusts.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 *No Thunderstorms Expected

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2