Regional Impacts
NB/NRN NS/WRN PEI/CNTL NL: scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening giving some gusty winds and torrential downpours.
NRN LAB: isolated thunderstorms giving some heavy downpours early this afternoon.
ERN mainland NS: An isolated thunderstorm is possible later this afternoon (mainly TCU).
Convective Discussion
A strong area of PVA has been triggering some isolated thundershowers along the north coast of Labrador this morning which will likely continue for another couple hours into the early afternoon. Further to the south we get into the hot and humid air mass that has settled into the MRTMS and central NL. An approaching frontal zone currently in the vicinity of the St. Lawrence river is sliding southeastward as too is the 500 mb upper trough. The shear will be increasing this afternoon and will be approaching 50 knots (unidirectional). Looking at the 12Z tephis does show the potential for some strong winds and torrential downpours with MLCAPE of up to 1000 j/kg. Freezing levels are pretty high so hail is not a concern. There is a load of low level moisture so torrential downpours are a pretty sure thing.
There are several things pointing at an active day, but the history of the front is not too impressive and the instability is not that strong. We do expect to see some scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with some of them strong to possibly severe (winds and torrential rainfall). For now there was no yellow area drawn into the convective map due to the lower level of confidence in seeing an active day. It could be one of those shifts were we wait to see development on the radar and go from there with possible watches (any warnings) for some counties in NB.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 Night
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Jeremy
