Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts:

 

Today

NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None

 

Tonight

NS/NB/PEI/NL/Labrador: None

 

Tuesday

NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None

 

Convective Discussion:

 

A ridge of high pressure will move into the region as a weakening low departs Newfoundland.  Stable and dry artic air associated with the ridge will inhibit any potential convection. Non convective showers are expected over Labrador on Tuesday associated with a warm front.

Thunderstorm outlook for today:

 

Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:

 

 

Thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday:

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

None.

 

Convective Discussion

 

An upper low northeast of Newfoundland will weaken and slowly pull east today. Warming between 850-700 mb will prevent any convection today.

 

Meanwhile, a warm front and surface low pressure centre will move across central Quebec and into western Labrador tonight. The low will track southeastward across southern Labrador early Sunday morning and over Newfoundland by Sunday evening. Showers will move into Labrador tonight but are not expected to produce any convection given warming at 700 mb. A trailing cold front on Sunday will track across the Gulf of St. Lawrence in the afternoon and over the eastern Maritimes in the evening. Although there will be some surface-based instability given strong daytime heating over the Maritimes, the area remains quite dry, with strong upper-level subsidence and a warm nose at 500 mb which should prevent any convection beyond isolated TCUs in showers. There may be a slight risk of an isolated thundershower near the centre of the low over the lower North Shore Quebec Sunday afternoon behind the 500 mb thermal ridge but 0-6km shear will be quite strong (70kts) which may inhibit development.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Newfoundland: Isolated thunderstorms are possible early this afternoon across parts of central Newfoundland. Main hazards will be lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours.

 

 

Convective Discussion

 

An upper low centred over western PEI in combination with a southwesterly 500mb low level jet extending into Newfoundland are aiding in the development of elevated convection over central Newfoundland early this afternoon. MUCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km wind shear of 50-60 kts will help maintain these storms as they move offshore. A warm nose at 850mb will prevent any convection from becoming surface based. Storms will begin to weaken after they move offshore this afternoon as the upper low begins to move east.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Regional Impacts

None

 

Convective Discussion

Cold low over Ungava Bay with a shortwave trough extending southwestward to James Bay. 500mb temperatures fall to -15 to -20 range in the cold pool. Several lightning flashes were detected earlier along the trough. 500mb Heights and Temperature will fall and a secondary cold low will emerge over Labrador tonight, and then over NF Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a slight risk of a thunderstorm.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

None.

 

Convective Discussion

No thunderstorms expected today and Monday.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Jeremy