Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today:

NL: Isolated embedded thundershowers possible today giving locally heavy rainfall.

NB: Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening giving some wind gusts, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

 

Tonight:

NS: Isolated thundershowers possible overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning giving locally heavy rainfall.

 

Wednesday:

NS/NB/PEI: Scattered thunderstorms expected in the afternoon giving strong wind gusts, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

 

Convective Discussion

 

A slow moving frontal trough of low pressure will give the risk of an elevated embedded thundershower to most of NL today. In NB, skies are clearing across the western part of the province which will allow for TCUs to develop with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon. 12Z KCAR tephi shows basically no wind shear (less than 20 knots), but adjusting the surface temp and Td a little gives some MLCAPE of 750 j/kg or so. Pwat is in the 30-35 range or so. Locally torrential downpours, gusty winds and small hail are possible in the stronger cells. Severe storms do not appear likely but will have to keep an eye on rainfall rates through the course of the day.

 

A weak short wave trough currently upstream over southwestern New England will cross NS tonight and Wednesday morning giving the risk for some thundershowers mainly across the southwestern mainland.

 

On Wednesday scattered thunderstorms are likely across most of the MRTMs in the vicinity of an upper trough of low pressure.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight and Wednesday morning

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday afternoon

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow empty test

Regional Impacts

 

Convective Discussion

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts:

 

Today

NB/NS/PEI/Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers. Gusty winds and downpours are possible in Labrador.

NL: None.

 

Tonight

NS/PEI/NL: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.

NB/Labrador: None.

 

Tuesday

NB: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.  Gusty winds and downpours are possible.

NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None

 

Convective Discussion:

A warm and humid air mass prevails throughout the region. An upper trough and a supportive vorticity centre will enable surface based thunderstorms over Labrador today. MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are expected over Labrador however shear values near 10 kts will limit the thunderstorm impacts to non-severe. Gusty winds to 70 km/h are possible. PWAT values near 40 mm maintain the downpour threat that has been in existence for the last few days in areas where the cells are training or slow moving. There is a risk of non-severe thundershowers over northwestern New Brunswick today. MLCAPE values of up to 500 J/kg are expected over New Brunswick however shear values are near 10 kts. There is a chance of embedded thundershowers over portions of Nova Scotia and PEI later today. On Tuesday, there is a risk of non-severe thundershowers over western New Brunswick but the downpour threat that has been in existence for the last few days will persist in areas where the cells are training or slow moving.

 

Thunderstorm outlook for today:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow:

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts:

 

Today

NB/Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers. Gusty winds, small hail and downpours are possible in Labrador.

NS/PEI/NL: None.

 

Tonight

NL: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.

NS/NB/PEI/Labrador: None.

 

Monday

Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.  

NB/NS/PEI/NL: None

 

Convective Discussion:

A warm and humid air mass prevails throughout the region. An upper trough and a supportive vorticity centre will enable surface based thunderstorms over Labrador today. MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are expected over Labrador however shear values are near 10 kts will limit the thunderstorm impacts to non-severe. Gusty winds to 70 km/h and small hail (relatively low freezing level) are possible. PWAT values near 40 mm maintain the downpour threat that has been in existence for the last few days in areas where the cells are training or slow moving. There is a slight risk of an embedded thundershower over extreme northwestern New Brunswick today.

 

Thunderstorm outlook for today:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow:

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts:

 

Today

NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.

 

Tonight

Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.

NS/NB/PEI/NL: None

 

Sunday

NB/Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers  

NS/PEI/NL: None

 

Convective Discussion:

 

A warm and humid air mass prevails throughout the region. A 30kt southwesterly LLJ and a supportive vorticity centre is giving thundershowers over areas of Newfoundland today. Generally MLCAPE values range from 500-1000J/kg however a clear lack of a trigger or a supportive upper jet should allow the main threat to be downpours. PWAT values near 40 mm maintain the downpour threat that has been in existence for the last few days in areas where the cells are training or slow moving.

 

Thunderstorm outlook for today:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow