Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today

NS and NB: Isolated severe thunderstorms possible producing torrential downpours, small hail and gusty winds.

 

Tonight

NL: Isolated thunderstorms possible giving torrential downpours.

 

Thursday

LAB: Isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon giving heavy downpours and gusty winds.

 

Convective Discussion

There is a risk for severe thunderstorms across a good portion of the MRTMs today as an upper trough of low pressure slowly pushes across the region. There is a leftover area of convection currently over southern NB and NS that will perhaps inhibit convection for a brief period of time, but skies are now clearing over northern NB which will allow us to reach the convective temperature before noon. Tephi analysis does show some good CAPE up to 1000 J/KG, but the shear is relatively low (roughly 25 knots of so from the surface to 500 mb). The Pwat is high (41 out of YQI and 43 at YAW). The main concern with the cells today would be their slow motion giving torrential rainfall over a fairly short period of time. Small hail and locally strong winds are also possible in the stronger storms.

 

The short wave through that brought some early morning convection to central NB and south of NS will be over a portion of NL tonight and Thursday morning, so there is a risk for isolated embedded thundershowers.

 

Lastly an approaching upper trough of low pressure will give the risk for afternoon and evening thunderstorms across western LAB on Thursday.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Thursday

 

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today:

NL: Isolated embedded thundershowers possible today giving locally heavy rainfall.

NB: Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening giving some wind gusts, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

 

Tonight:

NS: Isolated thundershowers possible overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning giving locally heavy rainfall.

 

Wednesday:

NS/NB/PEI: Scattered thunderstorms expected in the afternoon giving strong wind gusts, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

 

Convective Discussion

 

A slow moving frontal trough of low pressure will give the risk of an elevated embedded thundershower to most of NL today. In NB, skies are clearing across the western part of the province which will allow for TCUs to develop with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon. 12Z KCAR tephi shows basically no wind shear (less than 20 knots), but adjusting the surface temp and Td a little gives some MLCAPE of 750 j/kg or so. Pwat is in the 30-35 range or so. Locally torrential downpours, gusty winds and small hail are possible in the stronger cells. Severe storms do not appear likely but will have to keep an eye on rainfall rates through the course of the day.

 

A weak short wave trough currently upstream over southwestern New England will cross NS tonight and Wednesday morning giving the risk for some thundershowers mainly across the southwestern mainland.

 

On Wednesday scattered thunderstorms are likely across most of the MRTMs in the vicinity of an upper trough of low pressure.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight and Wednesday morning

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday afternoon

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow empty test

Regional Impacts

 

Convective Discussion

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts:

 

Today

NB/NS/PEI/Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers. Gusty winds and downpours are possible in Labrador.

NL: None.

 

Tonight

NS/PEI/NL: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.

NB/Labrador: None.

 

Tuesday

NB: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.  Gusty winds and downpours are possible.

NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None

 

Convective Discussion:

A warm and humid air mass prevails throughout the region. An upper trough and a supportive vorticity centre will enable surface based thunderstorms over Labrador today. MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are expected over Labrador however shear values near 10 kts will limit the thunderstorm impacts to non-severe. Gusty winds to 70 km/h are possible. PWAT values near 40 mm maintain the downpour threat that has been in existence for the last few days in areas where the cells are training or slow moving. There is a risk of non-severe thundershowers over northwestern New Brunswick today. MLCAPE values of up to 500 J/kg are expected over New Brunswick however shear values are near 10 kts. There is a chance of embedded thundershowers over portions of Nova Scotia and PEI later today. On Tuesday, there is a risk of non-severe thundershowers over western New Brunswick but the downpour threat that has been in existence for the last few days will persist in areas where the cells are training or slow moving.

 

Thunderstorm outlook for today:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow:

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts:

 

Today

NB/Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers. Gusty winds, small hail and downpours are possible in Labrador.

NS/PEI/NL: None.

 

Tonight

NL: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.

NS/NB/PEI/Labrador: None.

 

Monday

Labrador: A chance of non-severe thundershowers.  

NB/NS/PEI/NL: None

 

Convective Discussion:

A warm and humid air mass prevails throughout the region. An upper trough and a supportive vorticity centre will enable surface based thunderstorms over Labrador today. MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg are expected over Labrador however shear values are near 10 kts will limit the thunderstorm impacts to non-severe. Gusty winds to 70 km/h and small hail (relatively low freezing level) are possible. PWAT values near 40 mm maintain the downpour threat that has been in existence for the last few days in areas where the cells are training or slow moving. There is a slight risk of an embedded thundershower over extreme northwestern New Brunswick today.

 

Thunderstorm outlook for today:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight:

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow: