Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today

NS/NB/PEI/northern/NL/SErn LAB: Embedded thunderstorms bringing heavy downpours.

 

Tonight

Embedded thunderstorms over the southern marine waters.

 

Sunday

Isolated thunderstorms over the southeastern marine waters.

 

Convective Discussion

 

The centre of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby is tracking through Anticosti and towards northern Newfoundland this afternoon. A trailing cold front will be weakening as it moves across southern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island today. The main risk of embedded convection is along this front where rainfall rates could reach over 20 mm/h. Southern New Brunswick has already seen near 100 mm total rainfall since yesterday from heavy downpours and enhanced upslope flow as precipitable water of upwards of 50 mm continues to stream northward from the Gulf Stream  There may be some TCUs in showers with a slight risk of a thundershower over western New Brunswick this afternoon if a cap near 700 mb can be breached based on the morning Caribou sounding. Embedded thunderstorms will continue eastward over the southern marine waters tonight and into Sunday.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday

 

 

 

Roberta McArthur

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today

NB…Embedded thunderstorms bringing heavy downpours.

NS/PEI/NL…None

 

Tonight

NB/NS/PEI…Embedded thunderstorms bringing heavy downpours.

NL/LAB:  None.

 

Saturday

NS: Embedded thunderstorms bringing heavy downpours.

NB/PEI/NL/LAB: None.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby is interacting with an upper trough over central Ontario, helping to advect moisture into southern Quebec, New England and into the Maritimes today then towards Newfoundland into Saturday. The axis of heaviest moisture with embedded thunderstorms this morning has been over the St. Lawrence River towards eastern Ontario and south into New York State and along the southern coast of Maine. These areas are expected to move across northwestern New Brunswick and the Gulf of St. Lawrence overnight and into the Bay of Fundy. Pockets of heavy rain should then pull eastward into southern New Brunswick, PEI, NS and Newfoundland on Saturday with a trailing cold front. There may be embedded convection with this rain, enhancing rainfall amounts as precipitable water of 50 to 60 mm moves through the region but with a quite warm 500mb level as well, convection may end up capped. Regardless, heavy downpours are expected.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Saturday

 

 

 

Roberta McArthur

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts…

 

Today

NB/NS/PEI: None.

Labrador/NL:  Chance of non-severe thunderstorms.

 

Tonight

NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador:  None.

 

Friday

NB/NS/PEI: Risk of non-severe embedded thunderstorms.

NL/Labrador: None.

 

Convective Discussion

There is a risk of non-severe thundershowers for portions of eastern Labrador and northern Newfoundland today in the unstable northwest flow in the wake of a low well east of the region. On Friday, embedded non-severe thundershowers are possible over portions of the Maritimes associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby which is moving up the east coast of the United States.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts…

 

Today

NB/NS/PEI/NL: None.

Labrador:  Chance of non-severe thunderstorms.

 

Tonight

NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador:  None.

 

Monday

NB/NS/PEI: None.

NL/Labrador: Risk of non-severe thunderstorms.

 

Convective Discussion

There is a risk of non-severe thundershowers for portions of eastern Labrador today and Thursday in the unstable northwest flow in the wake of a low well east of the region. The thundershower risk will extend into northern Newfoundland on Thursday.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Scattered non-severe thunderstorms today for a portion of NL and southeastern Labrador.

 

Convective Discussion

A fairly large scale cold front is crossing the region today. There have been some scattered thunderstorms ahead of it and this will continue as it moves off to the east northeast. Just some heavy downpours are expected for a portion of NL and southeastern Labrador. There will be a slight risk of a thundershower for southeastern Labrador Wednesday, but such low confidence in seeing that doesn’t even warrant hatching a grey area on the map.

 

OTWZ quiet weather for the next several days, which is a welcome relief for some.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

Jeremy