Regional Impacts…
Today
NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None
Tonight
NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None
Friday
NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None
Convective Discussion
A very stable ridge of high pressure is anchored over the region for the next few days. No convection over land is forecast at this time.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Regional Impacts…
Today
NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None
Tonight
NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None
Thursday
NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador: None
Convective Discussion
A very stable ridge of high pressure is anchored over the region for the next few days. No convection over land is forecast at this time.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Regional Impacts
Atlantic Canada: No thunderstorms forecast.
Convective Discussion
Dewpoints across NB are near 10 this morning, and Nova Scotia/PEI are drying out as well. Morning soundings at Caribou and YQI are very dry 850mb to the trop. Smoke and Haze blanket the southern Maritimes. And a very stable ridge of high pressure is anchored over the region for much of this week. No convection is forecast or progged over land at this time. TS Dexter brings an embedded lightning risk but remains well offshore, simply skirting the southern-most marine district. See FQCN20 and Tropical Cyclone Information Statement for detailed information about that system.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.
Regional Impacts
Newfoundland and Labrador… low risk of isolated thunderstorms over central Newfoundland, heavier downpour potential in thunderstorms.
New Brunswick… a chance of thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours.
PEI and Nova Scotia… low risk of isolated thunderstorms, heavier downpour potential in thunderstorms.
Convective Discussion
A weak surface trough could potentially trigger thunderstorms over New Brunswick and possibly Newfoundland. Dew point temperatures above 16°C will support convective development; however, overall updraft strength is expected to remain modest, with deep but relatively thin CAPE.
Similar to yesterday, smoke aloft may negatively impact solar insolation, potentially delaying or even suppressing convection altogether. If thunderstorms do develop, there is some potential for locally heavy downpours, with rainfall rates possibly exceeding 30 mm/h. There is also a low chance that storms could back-build if they become established.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow (No thunderstorms expected)
Mel Lemmon
Regional Impacts
Newfoundland and Labrador… slight risk of isolated thunderstorm over western Labrador
New Brunswick… low risk of severe thunderstorms over northwestern areas early this evening. Gusty winds and heavy downpours possible.
PEI and NS… No thunderstorms expected.
Convective Discussion
Although the synoptic ingredients are not fully aligned for severe thunderstorms, there is a risk that lingering severe storms could move in from Quebec into northern New Brunswick early this evening. A drier-than-normal airmass will persist today, with surface dew point temperatures reaching the mid-teens over New Brunswick and slightly lower across Labrador, where thunderstorms are also possible.
The surface trough expected to trigger thunderstorm activity will cross Labrador today but is forecast to move only slowly toward New Brunswick. The upper-level jet may play a limited role, with its axis extending from central Labrador toward the Saint Lawrence River by this evening.
Surface-based CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, combined with moderate wind shear over eastern Quebec and into northern New Brunswick, could support the development of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) along the trough through the day. If organized thunderstorms do develop, there will be an elevated risk of strong wind gusts and heavier downpours.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon
