Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Some weak thunderstorms are likely to develop late today over northern New Brunswick. This evening and tonight the risk will spread through the gulf impacting western Newfoundland by the morning..

 

Convective Discussion

 

The atmosphere will continue to destabilize later today and through tonight as a cold upper trough makes its way through the region. Overall the amount of moisture has diminished over the last few days but steepening lase rate should be sufficient to generate stronger updrafts overnight and tomorrow morning for the eastern gulf waters and tomorrow afternoon for parts of Newfoundland.

 

For tomorrow deep shear and CAPE will continue to increase as the upper trough approaches, with ~40 knots of 0-6km shear and ~1000 j/kg. Organised convection is possible with a low probability of supercell formation. Strong wind gusts, 25mm + rain and small hail is possible.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

For New Brunswick… local downpours of 20mm are possible for northwestern areas, however should organized thunderstorms develop possibly more.

 

For Northern Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland… embedded thundstorms with weaker updrafts possible, some locally heavier rainfall could occur.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Today the vertical velocities should not be overly strong but despite this there is still a decent amount of moisture available with 30 + mm of precipitable water from the Sept-Iles and Caribou soundings. For today some locally heavy downpours and training of thunderstorms is possible and stronger returns are already showing up in Maine this morning. With daytime heating this should intensify further for western areas of New Brunswick into the afternoon.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

 

For tomorrow falling heights and increasing shear along with lowering freezing levels could lead to a larger hail potential and gusty surface winds.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

No impacts due to thunderstorms are expected today.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Most of the deep convection today will remain to the west and to the south as an upper thermal ridge will suppress the deeper thunderstorm for the Atlantic Region. Solar insolation will kick in over new Brunswick and TCUs will quickly develop but the storms should not be deep enough to generate thunderstorm activity, although intense showers may be possible. Over the marine area large, heavy rain producing storms can be expected, with respectable deep shear of about 30 knots and CAPE values > 1000 j/kg some organised storms could develop.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Slight risk of a thunderstorm giving brief moderate downpour for Valley and Central NS, PEI, and southern NB.

 

Convective Discussion

Some instability is expected this afternoon but it will manifest itself mostly in the low levels (below 3000m). Precipitable water range from 25-32 mm over southern portions of the Maritimes – hence the possibility of a brief downpour from towering clouds. Some regions have slightly higher dewpoints, and some will experience more surface heating from the sun - this greater instability could lead to the development of isolated thunderstorms.

 

Large high pressure cell over northern Quebec giving stable and dry air mass over Newfoundland and Labrador. Available energy is 0, and the precipitable water is an anemic 9mm at Stephenville.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD: Chance of a thundershower this afternoon.

Labrador: None.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Afternoon, surface based convection is possible today. Especially in areas where offshore northeast winds give convergence with onshore sea breezes. Precipital water is 20-30 mm so local downpours are likely. Dry mid layers will allow possible wind gusts and low freezing levels of 10,000 feet may allow small hail. The cape is generally low (300-400 J/kg) and the sheer is 20-30 kts so any storm develop will be mostly pulse in variety.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2