Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Convective Discussion
Brief heavy downpours are likely today throughout the Maritimes. There is a slight risk of a thundershower over western sections this evening.
Convective Discussion
Brief heavy downpours are likely today throughout the Maritimes. There is a slight risk of a thundershower over western sections this evening.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
No impacts except for southern Maritimes marine waters.
Regional Impacts
Newfoundland and Labrador and the Maritimes: none for today and Sunday.
Nova Scotia Marine: reasonable chance for thunderstorms over slope waters, diminishing to a chance south of coastal waters.
Convective Discussion
A combination of low moisture, negligible instability and high shear for the Maritimes will prevent any significant convection. For Labrador a ridge building in from the west, combined with low moisture and instability and cooling will prevent anything significant.
For the slope water near the North Wall of the Gulf Stream, surface temperatures and precipitable water levels of 30-40 mm and light to moderate shear support scattered air mass thunderstorms along the North Wall of the Gulf Stream, with decreasing likelihood going farther north. This should continue today, tonight and tomorrow.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
New Brunswick.. Severe thunderstorms are possible with strong wind gusts and brief heavy downpours during the late afternoon and early evening.
Prince Edward Island.. There is a risk of thunderstorms in western areas this evening.
Nova Scotia.. There is also a risk of thunderstorms over western and northern parts of the province this evening.
Western Labrador.. Risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon.
Convective Discussion
Based on this morning’s upper air soundings, there is a potential for destabilization but only later in the afternoon or early this evening. The main supporting features are analyzed just east of the Great Lakes this morning and it will take some time before they reach our region. Parts of New Brunswick have a greater potential for thunderstorm initiation, though the limitations appear to be more significant in the north and therefore the threat is reduced.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick.. Severe thunderstorms are possible with strong wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening.
Prince Edward Island.. It is possible that some thunderstorms will move into western areas during the evening hours.
Nova Scotia.. It is possible that some thunderstorms will move into western and northern parts of the province during the evening hours.
Western Labrador.. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Convective Discussion
Tomorrow is shaping up to be an interesting day for New Brunswick with dynamics to indicate that there is the potential for supercell development with strong wind gust potential. The main concern is either strong individual storms or a possible squall line developing late in the day.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Mel Lemmon
Regional Impacts
No thunderstorms expected today across the region.
Convective Discussion
High pressure system centered over Newfoundland will continue to give fair weather today. To the west, there are two frontal disturbances, one over James Bay and the other over Eastern Ontario. Rain associated with the James Bay system will gradually advance over Labrador today and tonight. There is some lightning activity associated with the southernmost system - but it’s not expected to affect the region.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
