Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Regional Impacts

Isolated thunderstorms over western Labrador this afternoon and into the evening. the main threat will be brief heavy downpours and high wind gusts.

Convective Discussion

A weak surface cold front extending through northern Quebec will advance towards Labrador this afternoon. Colder air aloft will destabilize the airmass between Shefferville and Wabush, and then around Churchill Falls late in the day. The La Grande sounding was modified with a Ts,Td combination of 23,14 which was enough to generate CAPE values of 250+ J/kg  and Lifted index of -1. The hodograph is showing unidirectional winds through the unstable column and a westerly shear / Jet of 50kt - which would be enough to sustain these isolated pulse thunderstorms a little longer, which could in turn could produce surface gusts of 35kt or more.

   

Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Regional Impacts

Slight risk of a non-severe thunderstorm over westernmost NS this evening and after midnight.

 

Convective Discussion

Moisture associated with a weak low pressure area over the Gulf of Maine will continue to advance over the

southern Maritimes during the day. Bands of showers along with an isolated thunderstorm will be moving through

Fundy and Lurcher.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Saturday

 

For Saturday, Risk of non-severe thunderstorms over western and central Labrador.

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Nil.

 

Convective Discussion

No thunderstorms expected in the region today. Some isolated thundershowers over MRTM waters south of NS overnight tonight and into Friday morning.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

No thunderstorms expected at this time. There is small chance of a lightning strike or two this afternoon over SE Labrador, GNP, and Green Bay-White Bay as the trough passes through.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

No convective activity expected for Day 2 at this time.

Convective Outlook for June 22nd and June 23rd, 2021

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Regional Impacts:

 

Potential for isolated non severe thundershowers today over much of the Maritimes with a potential for isolated severe cells over areas that become cloud free.  Main threat is heavy local downpours but strong winds and hail are also possible

 

Convective Discussion:

 

The cold front that caused much damage last night over Quebec and Maine is now over New Brunswick.  The area is quite cloudy which helps to inhibit severe cell growth but some areas may become cloud free and will be able to reach higher temps and hence become more unstable.  Strong jet over the area with an abundance of low level moisture and the trough to help kick things off.  Cloud free areas will be watched closely.  Areas with more cloud could still see convection with lower likelihood to become severe.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

No convective activity expected for day 2 at this time.

 

 

Barrie MacKinnon