Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Regional Impacts

Isolated thunderstorms over central and southeastern NF, brief heavier showers and gusty winds to 75 km/h. Some of these

Storms could advance in the Northern Avalon.

 

Convective Discussion

Trough moving across eastern part of NF today while an Upper low remains anchored off Labrador with a cold pool aloft.

There is enough energy (300-500 J/Kg) to push CB tops up to 6-7km. Westerly deep layer shear is quite strong so vertical

Development is limited. The main threat will be gusty winds in the outflow ahead of the storms.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – July 11th

 

Regional Impacts

Isolated thunderstorms across New Brunswick expected late this afternoon or early evening with the possibility of a severe thunderstorm over northernmost NB.  Local heavy downpour and strong gusts are the main threats.

Convective Discussion

Thunderstorm development later this afternoon or early evening over New Brunswick is possible.  Current conditions are not favourable for tstorm development as a capping inversion generally around the 700mb level will inhibit any convective activity.  However, this cap may begin to erode later in the day as cooling in the mid levels will help destabilize the column.  An upper level jet also begins to descend from the north which could help enhance vertical lift.  If the capping inversion does erode, 500 – 750 J/kg of CAPE may be realized and wind shear around 35 kts will help to tilt the updraft and may help realize longer lived cells.  A trough moving in later today will help kick off any convective activity.  Low level moisture is not impressive as Td’s sit around the 15C mark so this could inhibit stronger cells.  Overall, it’s a marginal situation for severe tstorm development with the uncertainty of the capping inversion and dry lower levels so I will not be issuing watches and will see how things develop this afternoon.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – July 12^th

Convective Outlook valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – JULY 10th

 

Regional Impacts

Slight risk of non severe thunderstorms over southwestern NS late this afternoon or evening.

 

Convective Discussion

Severe thunderstorms not expected today.  Drying conditions behind the remnants of Elsa will not be favourable for tstorm development over the Maritimes today.  No tstorms expected over Nfld and Labrador today. A few thundershowers over the Gulf of Maine may move over southwestern NS late this afternoon or tonight.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – JULY 11th

 

Regional Impacts

Thunderstorms possible over areas of New Brunswick tomorrow as a trough tracks in over the area late in the day.  There is a slight possibility for some of these thunderstorms to become severe.

 

 

Convective Outlook valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – JULY 9th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thunderstorms are forecast for Nova Scotia, PEI, Cape Breton, and parts of New Brunswick as Elsa approaches the Maritimes and passes over this evening.

 

Convective Discussion

With today’s storms, heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main threats. Convection is possible on Elsa’s eastern side as a warm tropical airmass gets pumped into the region and the circulation brings decent midlevel shear. Freezing levels are very high so hail is not expected. Any discrete cells over the marine district could be marginally severe this afternoon and evening with gusts above 70km/h.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – JULY 10th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thunderstorms are possible for areas of southwestern Nova Scotia and SE New Brunswick, in clearing behind Elsa.

 

Convective Discussion

Storms will be short lived and very isolated. Highly dependent on back-side clearing of synoptic driven clouds.

 

FW: Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

 

 

From: AD CPIA / ASPC DS (EC) <adcpia-aspcds@ec.gc.ca>
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Subject: Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – JULY 8th

 

Regional Impacts

Non-severe thunderstorms are forecast for areas of southwestern Nova Scotia and the valley this afternoon and evening.

 

Convective Discussion

Storms will be elevated in nature, with lightning being the main hazard. Heaviest rainfall will be over the southern marine district, where up to 45mm could fall in a strong pulse cell.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – JULY 9th

 

Regional Impacts

Embedded non-severe convection is possible in isolated pockets associated with the passage of post-tropical storm Elsa.

 

Convective Discussion

Main hazards from any cell that does develop would be locally heavy downpours and lightning. Storms will be moving quite quickly along the 500mb steering flow. Additionally, plentiful cloud cover will keep discrete storm development to a minimum.