Convective Outlook valid for Today, and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today, JUNE 4^th.

 

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible today in parts of New Brunswick.

 

 

Regional Impacts

Lightning will be the only expected hazard from any cells that develop.

 

Convective Discussion

A weak trough is pushing east this morning out of Quebec and the St Lawrence valley. Pwats are around 20mm today in NB and Maine, so a sub-warning rainfall amount of 15-20mm is forecast.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2, JUNE 5^th.

 

Widespread non-severe thunderstorms are forecast over a similar region in New Brunswick. Some more organized cells may produce wind gusts to 70km/h and approach severe limits with upwards of 25mm of rainfall. A watch may be required on Sunday.

 

 

Regional Impacts

Gusts to 70km/h are possible in central NB, as well as rainfall amounts near 25mm. Lightning will also be a hazard.

 

Convective Discussion

ML CAPE values are near 1000J/kg and 500-700mb differences at 18C. 0-6km shear across central NB is also near 30-35kts, so severe single cell storms are possible. Storm motion is slow at 5-10kts, and to the East.

Convective Outlook valid for Today, and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today, JUNE 3^rd.

 

A few isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Quebec border and NB Hwy2 north of Edmundston.

 

 

Regional Impacts

Lightning will be the only expected hazard from an embedded cell that may develop.

 

Convective Discussion

A weak trough is pushing east this morning out of the Eastern Townships of Quebec. This trough may spark a cell or two in far northern NB this evening. Strong thermal ridging is still the name of the game across NS and PEI, keeping any convection at bay for today. Newfoundland is far too cold and cloudy to see anything surface based.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2, JUNE 4^th.

 

Non-severe thundershowers are possible across much of New Brunswick. No severe hazards are forecast.

 

 

Regional Impacts

Lightning is the only expected impact, as well as upwards of 15mm of rainfall.

 

Convective Discussion

The environment is quite dry, however, with such forcing embedded convection must be considered. No deep convection will occur, as MU CAPE values are very low at 100-150J/kg, with a high 0-6km shear of 35kts. In such a strong LL shear environment, isolated funnel clouds cannot by completely ruled out. NSTP fields agree with this assessment.

 

Convective Outlook valid for Today, and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today, JUNE 2^nd.

 

A few isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible offshore of Newfoundland, wrapping around the low centre near the Avalon today.

 

 

Regional Impacts

Lightning will be the only expected hazard from a cell that may pop-up in the Newfoundland marine region.

 

Convective Discussion

As previously mentioned, the Avalon low may spark a cell in the wrapping warm sector today. Elsewhere across the Maritimes there is strong capping at 700mb and above with a ridge building in from the west. Some low-level/mid-level cloud may develop along the moisture tongue across southern NS this afternoon. No thunderstorms are forecast due to this stability profile.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2, JUNE 3^rd.

 

No thunderstorms expected in Atlantic Canada as the thermal ridge continues to increase stability in the region.

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

No thunderstorms expected.

 

Regional Impacts

None

 

Convective Discussion

A couple of troughs extend westward from a low located east of NF, fairly cool with extensive cloud cover and spotty rain/drizzle over the eastern half of the Atlantic provinces. To the west, a frontal wave extends from James Bay to southern New England. Elevated convection with tops above 10 km is associated with this feature but it remain west of the region.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

No thunderstorms expected.

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

No thunderstorms expected.

 

Regional Impacts

None.

 

Convective Discussion

The upper air pattern this morning shows two lows, one over northern Ontario and another one east of Newfoundland. In between, a ridge stretches from the Appalachians to James Bay. The airmass instability will produce fair weather cumulus over the Maritimes, and for Newfoundland the cloud cover will be more extensive giving occasional rain or drizzle.

Very little change is expected with these features during the next several days, although the ridge will attempt to build with limited success over western Quebec/Maritimes.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday

 

No thunderstorms expected.